Updated NDCs “Insufficient” to Meet Paris Goals

The current commitments of parties to the Paris Agreement will increase greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 10.6% by 2030, compared to 2010 levels, said a new report from UN Climate Change. This is an improvement over last year’s assessment, which found countries were on a path to increase emissions by 13.7% by 2030. But the combined climate pledges of the 193 countries, as reflected in nationally determined contributions submitted prior to COP27 next month, could still put the world on track for around 2.5ºC of warming by the end of the century. The new analysis shows that emissions will no longer increase after 2030, but “are still not demonstrating the rapid downward trend science says is necessary this decade”. The UN’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s most recent reports, using 2019 as a baseline, indicate that GHG emissions need to be cut by 43% by 2030. Simon Stiell, Executive Secretary of UN Climate Change, said: “To keep this goal alive, national governments need to strengthen their climate action plans now and implement them in the next eight years.”

 

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