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Climate Change Heightens Credit Risks for African Sovereigns

The effects of the climate crisis are an “increasingly imminent” source of credit risk for African sovereigns, according to a new report by Moody’s Investors Service. Unless the region’s governments are able to adapt, they will struggle to pay back investors following natural hazards caused by climate change, it noted. The report cites Mozambique and Uganda as being the most vulnerable among the African sovereigns due to their high exposures to severe and recurrent natural hazards coupled with their economic reliance on agriculture. It also highlights Ethiopia, Mali, and Niger as nations with high reliance on agriculture for employment, adding that fragile food security will also amplify their exposure to additional credit risks. The carbon transition presents African nations with longer-term – but still significant – credit challenges. In particular, hydrocarbon exporters Niger and Angola and prospective exporters like Mozambique are “most vulnerable” to the fall in hydrocarbon demand and prices that would take place if global carbon transition accelerated. 

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