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BMI Upgrades Renewable Growth Forecasts

Nearly a third of the world’s power will be generated by wind and solar by 2033, BMI has predicted, increasing its forecast by 22% on predictions it made two years ago. The company, which is a subsidiary of Fitch Solutions, said it had upgraded its forecast due to a “a ramp-up in capacity development, predominantly from solar” and a surge in pro-renewable policy announcements. Non-hydro renewables today account for 18% of total power generations, but this will rise to 31% by 2033, BMI predicted. Overall, it expects 54% of the world’s electricity to be generated by carbon-free sources such as wind, solar, hydropower and nuclear energy by 2033 – up from 42% today. Most of the growth will come from Asia, especially China and India, with North America and Europe accounting for the next highest amount of additional capacity. Coal-fired power, meanwhile, will likely see a large global decline, led by developed economies and parts of Asia. The share of coal in global electricity generation will fall from 33% in 2024 to 24.3% by 2033, the report stated. However, emerging markets in Asia will drive new adoption of coal – particularly India, which is set to represent over 85% of new output consumption. “We expect to see a reliance on traditional natural gas power remain in many markets, owing to supply imbalance risks,” BMI added.

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